Market volatility has intensified over the past month, and the stock market’s current four-day losing streak reflects how uncertain investors have become. As conditions remain shaky, the forces driving these swings have become clearer: the dominance of AI-related stocks and ongoing speculation about the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
This week brings several high-impact events that could determine how markets behave for the rest of the year — and possibly set the tone for early 2026. Here’s what investors are preparing for, and why each event matters.
The Main Event: Nvidia Earnings — November 19 (Wednesday)
Why it matters:
Nvidia, now the world’s most valuable company, remains the centerpiece of the AI boom — but its massive success has also raised the bar to nearly impossible levels. The broader market has recently punished top-performing AI stocks, even when their earnings are solid, and Nvidia could face that same pressure.
What investors are watching:
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Updated guidance on global chip demand.
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Any commentary addressing concerns that AI investment is becoming “circular,” with money circulating between the same companies instead of expanding outward.
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Reactions to recent major shareholders selling out, including SoftBank and Peter Thiel’s fund.
Despite the skepticism, Nvidia has repeatedly shocked the market with stronger-than-expected results. Betting against them has not been wise so far.
The First Opener: September Jobs Report — November 20 (Thursday)
Why it matters:
Though Nvidia will dominate headlines, the delayed jobs report will heavily influence expectations for a potential December interest-rate cut.
What could move markets:
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A weak nonfarm payrolls number could push investors to expect another 25-basis-point rate cut, which would likely boost stocks.
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A strong jobs report would support the belief that the Fed may keep rates unchanged, which could weigh on equities.
Confusion grew last week after the White House raised doubts about whether certain employment data would even be released, raising new concerns about how the Fed will act with incomplete information.
The Second Opener: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes — November 19 (Wednesday)
Why it matters:
Even though these minutes reflect discussions from three weeks ago, investors will be analyzing them closely for any signs of hesitation about rate cuts — especially in light of recent data gaps.
Focus areas include:
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Whether Fed officials expressed uncertainty due to delayed economic data.
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How their tone compares to current market expectations.
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Whether the minutes show more hawkish or dovish sentiment than anticipated.
These minutes will be read alongside the jobs data the following day, giving a fuller picture of the Fed’s potential path.
Bonus Market Movers: Target and Walmart Earnings
Target: November 19 (Wednesday)
Walmart: November 20 (Thursday)
Why they matter:
These two retail giants offer a real-world view of how consumers are spending at the end of the year. Their performances often act as an early signal for broader consumer trends.
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Walmart has closely tracked the S&P 500 this year, rising about 14%.
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Target, meanwhile, has struggled and fallen roughly 30%.
Investors want to know whether Target can begin closing that performance gap — or whether Walmart will extend its dominance into the holiday season.
Bottom Line
With Nvidia earnings, jobs data, Fed minutes, and major retail earnings all landing within a short window, this could be the most decisive week of the quarter. What happens over the next few days may guide sentiment, dictate portfolio adjustments, and ultimately determine how markets close out the year.
